One popular use of the RSI is to
determine divergence. Divergence is a compelling tool that can discover looming
market reversals, by comparing RSI value and shares’ price movements.
When you
trade ETF, if the trending momentum (which is justified by RSI) does not
bolster the price, an implied reversal might be in sight. Basically divergence can be
classified as two different types of divergence: one is bullish divergence, the
other one is bearish divergence.
Bullish divergence
takes place when a share’s price reaches a new low, but the RSI does not follow
the footsteps.
Chart 1: Bullish Divergence for SSO from 7/1/2011
to 3/31/2012.
Source: Line Graph Outline form
StockCharts.com. Actual data compiled by
Authors.
The ETF
SSO (ProShares Ultra S&P 500), pursues daily investment results that
resemble two times the daily performance of the S&P 500 index. It reached
the low of that cycle at 37.56 on 8/10/2011.
Chart 1 shows that, on 10/3/2011, it touched another cycle low at 35.82,
which was lower low, but the RSI (5) was 29, holding above a prior low of 23 on
8/10/2011. The bullish divergence formed between August and October 2011, and SSO
went up steadily from the bottom on 10/3/2011. The breakout in November endorsed
this reversal momentum.
When a
bullish divergence is detected, even if the underlying security is in a
declining mode, the sell-off is in check. Bearish momentum is controlled. Thus,
the market condition does not deteriorate further, and the fear does not spread
to a greater extent. It would be a good time to accumulate shares and wait to
grow your profit.
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