According to Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, American
Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is a nonprofit organization whose
purpose is to educate individual investors regarding stock market portfolio,
financial planning, and retirement accounts.
AAII’s Sentiment Survey, which is surveyed on its members’ view
(bullish, bearish or neural) opinion where the general market will be at. It is
released weekly. This reading is treated as one of the best of contrarian
indicators. It is similar to the technical indicator ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE)
which is measured on the retail investors, and is considered as a contrarian
indicator.
The above figure shows 43% of AAII’s members present bullish view
of the stock market in the six month. On the other hand, 29% members reveal
bearish view.
According to our trading log, bullish sentiment greater than 45%
is treated as a high reading. The AAII bullish percentage reached 55% last
week. This kind of level had not been seen for long time. It might foreshadow a
temporary reversal. However, we need to combine AAII sentiment survey with
other technical indicators to better gauge the market movement.
You can track AAII data by visiting the following website: http://www.aaii.com/
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